Deutsche Bank expected that the Egyptian pound will continue to strengthen against the US dollar to reach EGP 15.5 by the end of the first half of 2020 and EGP 15 by the end of the year.
According to a bank report, additional structural improvements have started in the balance of payments in Egypt, as the petroleum trade balance has improved due to the decrease in import volumes and Egypt’s realisation of self-sufficiency in natural gas.
It added that the improvement of security conditions in addition to investments in infrastructure contributed to increasing tourism flows and higher revenues of the Suez Canal, pointing out that the payment of previous dues to foreign companies would attract more foreign direct investment, especially in the energy sector.
“The growth rate in Egypt is expected to rise to about 5.8% and 5.9% in fiscal years (FY) 2020 and 2021, respectively, up from 5.6% recorded by the economy in the FY 2018/19, due largely to the gradual recovery in consumption rates in the private sector,” the bank said.
Deutsche Bank added that the inflation rate has decreased significantly, expecting that the main inflation will continue to decline to remain at single rates throughout 2020.
It explained that the rise in the exchange rate of the pound and the drop in international oil prices, along with the government’s intervention to control prices in the food market, helps to contain and curb inflation.
The bank emphasised that the moderate levels of inflation in the recent period came as a result of the stability of food prices.
“Our view of the drop in oil prices, along with the appreciation of the Egyptian pound, will act to curb any inflationary pressures,” according to Deutsche Bank.
The bank expected that the recovery in private consumption rates will start gradually, and that the improvement in net exports will continue, as Egypt’s dependence on imports of energy and fuel is expected to decrease due to the increase in domestic production, and non-oil exports will increase in the coming period, with an increase in gold production, electronics, and pharmaceuticals, thanks to the increased competitiveness of Egyptian goods since the liberalisation of the exchange rate in late 2016.